2020年视频货币化现状

A我们谈论2020年的盈利，只有一个 thing is clear: The video-on-demand (VOD) and live linear market has room for every business 模式，从纯订阅到广告支持再到两者的结合. Here's an insider summary of what experts are predicting for the coming year.

流媒体服务的数量只会越来越多. 去年, Disney+和Apple TV+等新服务加入了Netflix等老牌公司的行列, Amazon Prime, 和Hulu. 2020年nbc环球将推出《百家乐软件》, HBO马克斯, and an expanded service from CBS All Access that will incorporate more ViacomCBS content. 总的来说, 在2019年底, 市场上已经有270多个流媒体服务, 根据Parks Associates.

“增长的规模和速度都在加快. 总体收视率同比增长72%, 消费率也在上升, 2019年第一季度的增长速度比2018年第一季度快49%," according to Conviva's "State of the Streaming TV Industry" Q1 2019 report. Conviva每天分析一万亿次实时交易. "The largest growth segments are virtual MVPDs with viewership up 108% and connected TVs, 哪种设备的年增长率最快，达到74%."

图1:盈利状况

据Conviva说, 2019年第一季度的整体电视收视率同比增长72%, 其中虚拟mvpd增幅最大，达到108%. (资料来源:Conviva的《百家乐软件》报告)

收入来自哪里重要吗?

The subscription versus advertising dilemma is as much a philosophical one as a business one. 传统的想法是，你希望与你的客户建立这种关系, 但更传统的思维(和技术)并没有发明流媒体. 也许我们应该忘记这个旧的前提.

"It's important to figure out what you're trying to prove and build off of that,加布里埃尔·伯杰说。, ThinkAnalytics首席执行官, which does 5 billion recommendations a day in more than 40 different langu年龄s. “(所有服务)都必须赚钱.

“迪士尼+谈论的是现金 5年内流量为正. How much money you have certainly matters [for] how long you stay in the 游戏," says Berger. "At this point, the life expectancy of all these services may be a bit murky. The underpinnings of their success will be about how much they know about their audience and how effectively they communicate with them."

表股份

因此，为所有这些服务寻找眼球是首要任务. “点菜”时代已经到来, 现在消费者需要弄清楚如何购买他们的观看体验. 而有些人质疑近300家服务公司是如何维持运营的, 观众寻找小众内容的能力仍在增强.

"As more and more of these services come online, consumer spending continues to grow. Our consumer research at CTA for 2020 is that we're approaching $17 billion U.S. 消费者在流媒体服务上的支出,史蒂夫·柯尼格说, 消费者技术协会(CTA)研究副总裁, 在2020年国际消费电子展的展示会上.

“有一些非常成功和切实的例子, 比如WWE和Hallmark频道, 这是在培养观众, 订阅收入, 品牌忠诚度. They are trying to grow their audience while learning more about their audience through data and analytics,柯尼格说. 由数据, 我们通常讨论的是特定的观众群体喜欢什么, but let's first look at bigger data trends about how much viewers want to spend.

根据德勤2019年“数字媒体趋势调查”,“观众平均有三个流媒体订阅服务. A 好莱坞记者/早上 Consult poll showed that OTT customers want to spend $17–$27 for all of their services.

随心所欲的“U.S. 视频市场报告” 2019年第三季度显示，冥王星的定价范围从免费到免费电视和Tubi降至6美元.Disney+的月租高达99美元 $66.fuboTV每月24美元. The chart mixes subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) and ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) 服务，所以这不是苹果对苹果，但它表明了这一点 consumers can put together a combination of three services and stay in that $17–$27 price range if they 愿意限制他们的选择，排除电视直播吗.

图2:盈利状况

流媒体服务及其定价的样本，来自免费的Wheel的“U.S. 视频市场报告(2019年第三季度)

“80%的公众已经订阅了某种形式的SVOD,Marc DeBevoise说, Viacom-CBS的首席数字官, 在2020年国际消费电子展的展示会上. Via-comCBS在美国的研究.S. 显示出更大的数量比其他一些研究要多. "That's three and a half services [per customer], and we already see that number growing.

“在我们所做的研究中, 我们预计未来三年将有约2亿用户 to 五年，”德贝沃斯说. "There's about 180 million out in the marketplace today, and we see that effectively doubling.“Netflix不能翻倍，因为它已具有深厚的市场渗透. Amazon Prime is going to have trouble doubling, so that leaves the other services to pick up viewers.

构建个性化包

“我们绝对认为这不是零和博弈游戏. Netflix或Disney+在这方面就不明白了所有的订阅者，而其他人没有。.

"I think that the really fascinating puzzle we're going to see come together over the next 5, 6, 7, 8年是消费者最终组装的服务集合,安迪·福塞尔说, WarnerMedia直接面向消费者执行副总裁兼总经理, 在2020年国际消费电子展的一个小组会议上. “我们不会与迪士尼或Netflix正面交锋. 我们不是试图说服某人离开这些服务. 我的意思是, 我们在争夺观看时间和可自由支配的收入, 我们在人才方面竞争. So I wouldn't say it's not competitive, but it is oddly not directly competitive.

"I think part of that pattern is we'll see people with one or two services that they consider a base service that they're subscribed to all the time, 他们可能有一个，两个或四个是[混合]的一部分,福塞尔说。.

混搭

这种组合仍将是订阅的组合和AVOD. 根据“TiVo 2019年第四季度视频” 《百家乐软件》指出:“AVOD主导了消费者最喜欢的捆绑服务. 不管你是否同意它的图表, AVOD makes sense if there's a limited amount of subscriptions consumers are willing to have. Viewers don't think about ad-supported services that are free in the same way they think about subscriptions. 免费的 means no commitment, and according to TiVo's research, a lot of consumers surveyed like free.

盈利状况

根据“TiVo 2019年第四季度视频趋势报告”,“AVOD主导着消费者的顶级服务包, 这表明他们仍然更喜欢不用付费的在线视频.

“有一些研究表明，人们不想看广告,马特·史密斯说, executive director of business development and strategy at Comcast Technology Solutions. “我不认为这是真的. 我们都习惯了, 在我们的传统或数字观看平台, 要么坐着看线性的东西，然后看广告, 或者如果你有录像机的话, 你可能会快速浏览或跳过一些. 或者如果你有一个付费频道, you're used to that channel not having any ads other than promos for their own content. 但是今天，事情在发展，事情在改变. I think we are discovering as an industry, that people are okay with watching ads."

直到最近，盈利问题还是非此即彼. "A couple of ways that publishers look at skinning that cat is the simple A or B, am I going to charge a subscription or am I going to support it with advertising?史密斯说。. “我认为这两种策略都是成功的. 现在你看到了一些出版商, 内容版权持有者, decide to charge maybe a smaller subscription fee and offer a limited ad payload,他说. “也许在你以前的豆荚里五个, 六个, 或者7个AD单位, 也许现在是四个，这是由订阅费补贴的."

当然是个性化

这就是地势. 现在让我们来看看2020年剩余时间的趋势.

"I think the industry is getting better about delivering ad payload with relevant data so that you're seeing ads that are more relevant to you,史密斯说。. 我想很多业内人士也会这么说闪耀的北极星绝对是个性化广告."

基于位置的个性化, 年龄, 经济阶层的, and other data means you might be delivering different ads to different viewers. “并不是所有的观众都会这么做买同样的可口可乐广告，然后买同样的地板广告，他们可能在一个豆荚里都能看到不同的广告，”史密斯说.

虽然这是天堂，但许多公司并非如此还. 除了了解个性化，观众的隐私数据，广告创意然后必须是可用的.

2020年趋势: 确定最好的技术支持提供不同版本的广告创意给不同的观众.

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